While Eric Gordon has shown both his positive impact, helping Indiana to a schedule enabled but nonetheless undefeated conference mark, as well as his limitations as a program changer in the sound defeats to Xavier and Connecticut, perhaps his biggest effect has been on the program a buck fifty to the northwest.

Bruce Weber’s club, still competing hard, searching for consistent shooting, and officially embedded in a crisis of confidence is providing yet another cautionary tale about the risks of recruiting at the very top of the food chain.

Attempts to land players of NBA on-arrival talent puts one in a fishing circle with a cast of programs and coaches who will stoop to any methods from the seamy to the illegal to hook their prized catches. Recants and double recruitment are bound to be more likely in such circles. Occasionally the teams that catch the biggest fish parlay it into the biggest prize (Carmelo Anthony in 2003), but the downside risks to program continuity are often consequential and sometimes quite punitive.

The dip of Izzo’s program from Final Four in 2001 to 1st round exit in 2002, a sag explained primarily by the early jettisons of Zach Randolph and Jason Richardson from the good ship Spartan, is but one example of the downside. The fact that Michigan State has had only one player (Shannon Brown) since 2001 leave early is a clear indication of how Izzo has adjusted his recruiting philosophy to avoid recurrences.

And as we are observing with Illinois this season, the Gordon scenario seriously damaged Weber’s 2007 recruiting cycle. And the damage of his recant and the shady double-recruitment that enabled it isn’t merely about Gordon not wearing orange this season. It’s about the fact that his decommitment and its occurrence late in the recruiting cycle hobbled Weber’s pursuit of what was an obvious priority of his 2007 class: a scoring two-guard be it Gordon or anyone else. His scramble for Quinton Watkins was a last minute attempt to allay this need, but also went for naught due to Watkins’ academic deficiencies.

Coaches with integrity and an intelligence for team construction extend scholarship offers not to a grab bag of recruits regardless of position but to a refined number of players to fulfill specific program needs. Weber fits the category of a principled recruiter who does not stockpile players for the same position.

Programs with rampant transfer rates and/or many examples of players becoming bench mired provide examples of the contrary approach. At such programs players are too often horded without enough regard for how they will fit into the program. Some become good fits, many others forgotten bench meat.

On the other hand when Weber got what he thought to be a solid verbal from Gordon, he stopped looking for a 2007 two-guard. The loss of Gordon, the late, failed attempt for recoup with Watkins, and the absence of Jamar Smith, yet another scoring 2-guard, elucidates what is less a recruiting deficiency of Weber’s than a coach and program absorbing what were unexpected and impactful interruptions to an otherwise successful and principled recruiting strategy.

The result is a roster without enough consistent perimeter shooting/scoring. The team’s only answer to this deficiency is a non-scholarship walk-on in Meacham. It isn’t hard to see why opponents are packing the paint, putting Pruitt and Randle in a cage where their every manuever and shot is double and triple contested, and taunting the depleted Illini perimeter into beating it with jumpshots.

Now, if a few of the jumpshots started to fall with more regularity, suddenly the lane would unclog a bit and Randle would have more lanes to the basket and Pruitt would miraculously look like the All-Big Ten player of last season. Even Rich McBride’s every third night of good shooting and Warren Carter’s rangy jumpshot helped open the low-block up for Pruitt and company last season.

Fortunately the EJ Effect should not extend beyond this season. The return of Jamar Smith and the addition of Alex Legion will give the Illini the perimeter scoring punch they so desperately need.

Same Defense, Different Results

NU’s 1-3-1 zone defense, so effective last season in befuddling offenses and keeping the talent-deficited Wildcats close in many conference tilts, is a shell of its former self. The number of uncontested looks and second chances it is yielding opponents has doomed the Wildcats to eyesore conference efforts to date and what could easily become a season without a Big Ten win.

With Tim Doyle, the Big Ten’s third leading thief, manning the top of last season’s 1-3-1 and the disruptive length of Vince Scott, the Wildcats were 4th in the conference in scoring defense (58.7 ppg). This year they have fallen to 10th in the same category, allowing 67.7 points per game. They have also suffered significant declines in FG % defense, 3-pt FG % defense, and rebounding margin.

While a zone defense is a necessary strategy for a team that lacks the athletes to play man-to-man, Carmody’s rigid adherence to the 1-3-1 and its poor productivity this season is disconcerting. It is a defense predicated on quick reads and responses, especially on the wings which can be vulnerable to teams with good perimeter shooting. The Wildcats this season have struggled to get consistent pressure on the wings and the results have been some very good shooting nights from opponents.

Last Thursdays performance by the Spartans in Welsh-Ryan was a case in point. The Spartans shot a gaudy 60% from the field and 61% from behind the arc. A team with the razor thin margin of error of Northwestern cannot overcome such precipitous declines in defensive categories. Giving up 9 more points a game, more open looks, and more offensive rebounds by a team that needs to do so many things right just to keep contact with its Big Ten foes is a bad trend.

And whether the problem is a lack of intensity, the inexperience of new players such as Michael Thompson with the 1-3-1, or the lack of length, none of it reflects well on Carmody from a teaching or recruiting standpoint.

Quick Learning Curves In Iowa City

With the exception of a tough night in Columbus on January 9, Lickliter’s Hawkeyes need to be recognized for their solid performance in conference play thus far. Sitting at 3-5 which includes a victory over Michigan State and three- and five-point losses to conference leaders Indiana and Purdue at Carver-Hawkeye, the Hawkeyes are playing very competitive basketball and with impressive alacrity given the challenge presented Lickliter.

While Tubby Smith continues to get all of the plaudits as a turnaround artist and even what are absurd nominations for national coach of the year, Lickliter is getting equal if not better results in conference play and with considerably less raw material. His Hawkeyes have the look of a team that will be a tough out for the second half of the conference slate. And at Carver-Hawkeye, it is likely there will be a few more big wins. Given the already impressive strides he’s made with his adopted roster, it should serve as a warning to the rest of the conference for the seasons to come.

Posted by DJ Elsass on Sunday, January 27th, 2008 at 11:30 pm.