Ohio State is Number 1 in both the AP and Coaches’ Polls but it doesn’t matter. Having the highest ranking bestows an inference of greatness and in this respect Ohio State is good, but certainly not great. The Buckeyes are not without the company of other elite teams possessing significant weakness: Kansas, Florida, UCLA, North Carolina and Memphis are talented but fragile, each suffering from either a lack of focus and discipline to inexperience and dubious coaching. Where no team is dominant, such parity accentuates the beauty of this season’s tournament endgame where anything is possible by any team.
A cursory peek at the top of the collegiate hoop landscape affirms this proposition. Despite Ohio State’s gaudy record and Thad Matta’s testiness, the Buckeyes were crushed by Florida and needed last second heroics to beat Wisconsin and Tennessee in Columbus. They also needed last second prayers left unanswered to beat Penn State and Michigan State. And the Buckeyes were lucky to win 49-48 yesterday. Against the Badgers, a choke free throw gave Mike Conley a chance to take the lead and a no-call gave Ohio State its first win over a top tier team in four chances. Perhaps if Mata worked his offense from the inside out rather than the perimeter, getting Odem more involved on offense, Ohio State could be a dominant team. While it’s definitely better to whine with 26 wins than with 11, the Buckeyes will never reach the potential of their talent, regardless of their total number of wins, without a greater contribution from Oden.
So without a dominant team and with parity, we anticipate an NCAA Tournament where the possibilities stretch beyond the Key West horizon. In searching for Cinderella in the vein of last year’s George Mason, many look to the Mid-Major Conferences. Gregg Marshall’s excellent Winthrop program, Nick Fazekas and Nevada, Chris Lowery and the defense of Southern Illinois and Butler are popular and worthy choices. When Butler beat Gonzaga (with Heytvelt before fungi) in Madison Square Garden, Hoopraker was there and it was no fluke. Butler’s wins over Indiana, Notre Dame and Tennessee were no accidents either. Although undersized, Butler plays together and with purpose not to mention Todd Lickliter is a coaches’ coach. It’s heartening to see players that were overlooked or under-recruited by Big Ten schools, players like AJ Graves and Randal Falkner, succeed. In fact, there aren’t many teams in the Big Ten that wouldn’t start academic stalwarts Graves and Faulkner.
The most important lesson from the success of these teams is what they evidence: the transcendent capabilities of five players. Toughness, heart, defense and of course great coaching are magnificent equalizers in the face of supreme talent. Basketball is, and always will be, a team game. With the parity among the major programs, this may indeed be the year in which a 10 seed makes a run and wins the whole thing.
While it may be in vogue to look to mid-majors for the glass slipper, consider at least one team from the Big Ten. Apart from the credentials of Ohio State and Wisconsin both of which have the potential to win five games in a row, one team is coalescing at the most opportune time, Michigan State. While the Spartans have faced adversity in the form of loses and injuries, they are playing their best basketball now. Not only is it conceivable the Spartans could make a deep run, but with Tom Izzo at the helm, their exceptional team defense, Neitzel’s experience and Raymar Morgan’s emerging talent, MSU could actually win the whole thing if they take care of the ball. Improbable, but amongst this year’s teams, it’s possible.
