The refrain is as familiar to the national sports media as Brick House to a wedding DJ. Every year about this time the same song is sung. Always in late January or early February, usually after many of the conference’s teams have been beating up on each other, inflicting tough losses, and before the pivotal final month of conference play when the well-coached teams have fully evolved. Need I remind you of the lyrics?
“The Big Ten is down. The Big Ten is down. Down down down.â€
It was sung in 1999 before the conference put two in the Final Four (Ohio State and Michigan State). It was sung in 2000 before it placed three of its teams in the Elite Eight (Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue), two in the Final Four (Wisconsin and MSU), and produced the National Champion (MSU). It was sung in 2005 before it had Illinois, MSU, and Wisconsin in the Elite Eight, Illinois and MSU in the Final Four, and the Illini as National runners-up. It was sung last year. It’s being sung again this year.
It’s obvious to point out that the conference can’t be down if it’s never up. This failure of logic, of course, is forever lost in the hurly burly. When the Big Ten defies the condemnation with multi-teamed deep runs into March, the pundits trot out their short memories and revisionist history and declare they were with the conference all along. Or, if one or two of its teams make strong tournament showings, they dub the conference top heavy and dismiss the rest. The pattern is predictable and farcical, but the prevailing message is one worth noting. The opinion makers, whether through coastal bias, generalized fan preference, disdain for Big Ten basketball style, or mere shallowness, seem to consider the Big Ten a fly-by conference whose time has passed.
Admittedly, with the exception of Ohio State whose stacked blue chip roster this year under Matta plays a sexier, more Neilsen friendly brand of ball, the conference at large betrays a more deliberate style of basketball than many of the other conferences and so far has failed to attract the same volume of McDonald’s All-Americans and NBA jumpers. That may be a problem for basketball dilettantes and elements of the bandwagon media, but it hasn’t exactly relegated the Big Ten and its superior coaches and programs to the scrap bin of history.
To wit, slow ball or not, the Big Ten has hardly gone gently into the basketball good night. Though it is hasn’t produced a National Champion in six years, it’s come as close as possible in 2002 with Mike Davis riding a Knight recruited roster to national runner-up and 2005 when Weber’s Illini team was a few Augustine fouls from the top prize. An even deeper measurement of the conference’s continued relevance comes from looking at the last decade of Final Four representation. Since 1996, the Big Ten has placed nine teams in the Final Four, second only to the ACC with ten. This depth of influence and success is a stern rejoinder to those who continue to sing off-key dirges about the conference’s demise.
This year the tired song has added a new, poorly reasoned chorus. The latest is that not only is the conference down again, but it’s only going to receive, at most, three NCAA bids. As enervating as it gets to inform the nabobs and flaks who are too busy fawning over the Pac 10 and ACC to do even a little due diligence, Hoopraker will gladly perform that public service. To put it simply, the Big Ten is looking at a minimum of five bids.
Tom Izzo certainly concurs: “I still think there’s six or seven teams that have a chance to get in. When I hear anything less than five teams, it almost makes me laugh. I’m a little bit ticked off. I don’t think our league gets the respect it deserves.”
Of course, Izzo has a self-interest in the above quote, but it’s more than public relations. He’s right on the money. Acknowledging Wisconsin and Ohio State as granite locks, let’s look at the teams who have the best chances to join them in the field of 64 and what they must do in February to prove Izzo and Hoopraker sage.
Indiana 16-6 overall, 6-3 conference
The Hoosiers are just beneath the Badgers and Buckeyes as almost certainties. They’ve got a quality wins against UConn and Wisconsin, quality losses to Butler, Duke, and Kentucky. Being conservative, they will win at least three more conference games, putting them at 19-10 entering the Big Ten tournament. Add a win on the road in Ann Arbor, hardly a stretch, and the case is closed. Even without that piece, the Hoosiers should be dancing.
Likely Wins: Minnesota, @ Northwestern, Penn State
Bonus Wins: Illinois, @ Purdue, @ Michigan, @ Michigan State
Illinois 17-8 overall, 5-5 conference
Not that Bruce Weber needs or uses excuses, but his team has been broadsided by injuries to three of his best players (Randle, Jamar Smith, and Chester Frazier), and he’s still more than likely to have them playing in the NCAA tournament. With those three finally healthy, Hoopraker projects a minimum of four more conference wins in February, and five wouldn’t be a stretch. An Illinois team with 21 or 22 wins doesn’t get a bid? Nonsense. Furthermore, look for Weber’s bunch to play into formidable form by the end of the month. This is a team that not only will be in the tournament, but is capable of a more than modest showing.
Likely Wins: @ Northwestern, Northwestern, Michigan, @ Penn State
Bonus Wins: @ Indiana, @ Iowa
Michigan State 17-7 overall, 4-5 conference
Again, injuries have taken a huge toll on this team. Joseph and Morgan spent considerable time on ice, hurting a team that does not have limitless depth. Nonetheless, the Spartans beat Texas and have high caliber losing efforts to Ohio State, Maryland, and Boston College. We see them winning four to five in February, the fifth being either at Purdue or in Lansing against Wisconsin. Like Illinois, can you deny a Tom Izzo team with 21, 22 wins? We don’t think so. And once they are in, who wants to deal with a backcourt of Neitzel and Walton in a tournament where strong guard play is paramount? They aren’t going to be an easy out.
Likely Wins: Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, @ Michigan
Bonus Wins: @ Purdue, Wisconsin, @ Wisconsin
Purdue 15-8 overall, 4-5 conference
Painter and company have their work cut out for them. They’ve been world beaters at Mackey and lost and confused on the road. But, with two games against Northwestern, and home games with Minnesota and Indiana, four more in the win column isn’t out of the question. Unfortunately, that probably won’t be enough. If they pick off a road win at Iowa or Ohio State (less likely) or make a good Big Ten tournament showing to add to the four previously mentioned, they deserve a bid. Twenty or more wins for a team that also beat DePaul, Virginia, Missouri, and Oklahoma is a good case. Hoopraker has a hunch Painter’s going to make February in West Lafayette, at the very least, a real joy to watch.
Likely Wins: Indiana, @ Northwestern, Minnesota, Northwestern
Bonus Wins: Michigan State, @ Ohio State, @ Iowa
Michigan 16-8 overall, 4-5 conference
Unless the Wolverines produce heroics at the Big Ten Tournament, Hoopraker thinks the late season slide is going to be mighty difficult to reverse. Three more wins are not impossible, but are also far from assured. Three more wins won’t get it done for the NCAA committee. Four more, which would require beating Michigan State or Ohio State in Ann Arbor, may not even be enough. Amaker may need a flux capacitor and Phil Hubbard circa 1976 to save his hide.
Likely Wins: Minnesota
Bonus Wins: Indiana, @ Minnesota
Iowa 13-10, 5-4 conference
As we said here, Alford and company have done more than many expected, but seem destined for an 8-8 mark in conference and an NIT bid. Even if they beat both Illinois and Purdue at home, and manage a 10-6 conference record, they’re still under twenty wins and probably not destined for a nod or are severely bubbled. It will take all that and a win on the road in Madison or East Lansing. Or, if Alford’s team has a huge Big Ten tourny, and Alford has a pretty good track record in the event, that provides another possible, but rare scenario.
Likely Wins: @ Minnesota, Northwestern, @ Penn State
Bonus Wins: Purdue, Illinois
Needless to say, the bandwagon chorus about the death of the conference is as tone deaf as the thinking behind it is superficial. And for knowledgeable and appreciative basketball fans, February in the Big Ten is going to be a treat. The storylines and subplots are many and multifaceted, but however they play out, the conference is going to have more than three loose in the NCAA brackets.
Ohio State and Wisconsin have the most obvious potential to make the trip to Atlanta, but let’s not count out the teams that by the end of the month may well be poised to make spirited, impactful showings in the dance. The arguments against this fact are as familiar as they are wrong. The Big Ten is very much alive and kicking. Enjoy the February dust-ups!
