While most of Central Ohio fixates upon the Nov. 18 Ohio State–Michigan game (and justifiably so) these chilly Autumn nights remind me that our mistress, Big Ten basketball awaits less than one month away. Seems like just yesterday that Thad Matta got pounded by John Thompson III in the NCCA Tourney. Although Hoopraker thinks they may still be unable to beat Georgetown, most prognosticators and related hoop cognoscenti think the potential of Ohio State’s young talent translates into a run to the Final Four. I truly hope so but perhaps from my lingering pain growing up during the Eldon Miller regime, I’m more comfortable with low expectations. So Buckeye fans all, I plead, take a deep breath and walk in a circle three times.
With a nucleus of players from the Jim O’Brien era, Ohio State had a very good 2005-2006 regular season. While they stumbled miserably down the stretch in February and looked outright horrible in the NCAA Tourney, the Buckeyes generally exceeded expectations with an experienced team. Benefiting from an unbalanced conference schedule that let them avoid a trip to Champaign, they won the regular season Big Ten Championship. Two very good players return from last year’s team in Jamar Butler (a potential first-team all-Big player) and Ron Lewis, a proven scorer albeit light defender. Among others, however, it loses a solid shooting guard and defender in J’kel Foster, a hard worker on both ends in J.J. Sullinger and the Big Ten Player of the Year in Terence Dials (let’s call it addition by subtraction with the loss Matt Sylvester). Ohio State replaces these experienced players with young but talented freshmen.
Oh yes, the Thad Five. For just about everyone, most of whom have never seen him play in a game, the hyperbole surrounding Ohio State’s season begins and ends with Greg Oden. However, surmising Ohio State will be better off without Dials and with Oden diminishes the contributions of Dials. Although not as hyped, Daequan Cook is great shooter and will most likely probably step into Foster’s role, excel and exceed. David Lighty, Othella Hunter and Mike Conley, a talented point, will be counted on to provide significant minutes. No question, on paper it’s a talented recruiting class with potential. Putting potential on the scoreboard is another matter. Just ask Tommy Amaker and all the talent he has squandered from Seton Hall to Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The biggest issue with Oden is Matta’s failure to put depth behind the big freshman. Unfortunately, Matt Terwilliger is not the answer. Even when Oden returns from rehabing his injured wrist, Ohio State will have very little wiggle room on the front line. As Dials will probably disclose over a beer or three, Matta has a proven track record of being completely unable to get him the ball when Ohio State needed a bucket. Unless Matta changes his coaching philosophy from a perimeter-oriented team to a post-team, which is very unlikely given the makeup of his recruiting classes and his track record at Butler and Xavier. Oden, like Dials, may find himself watching the guards take jump shots for several months before he flirts with the NBA.
Some in the traditional media think it’s a down year in the Big Ten. Hoopraker sees a wide open league that will be heavily dependent on the abilities of its coaches.  Many teams in the Big Ten will confront similar problems in terms of experience, or lack thereof, as Ohio State. Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan State and Iowa all lost significant players. With young teams, coaching plays a huge role in determining wins and loses. On this point, I fear Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber have an edge on the Buckeyes. In the conference, Ohio State could easily lose to Purdue, Penn State, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. They’ll obviously have a tough time with North Carolina and Florida and perhaps the well-coached teams Kent State and Iowa State.
So far in his career, Matta has won with players he inherited from other coaches. Certainly a mark of a good coach is winning with the hand you’re dealt. This year, however, we will see Matta’s vision for Ohio State and he will be judged on its results.Â
