Hoopraker

Except for the upper tier this will be a conference defined largely by parity and to a great degree, it will be a season referendum on coaching. Save Wisconsin which has a full and tasty larder and is a safe bet at the top, the other rosters have less obvious potential. Most squads will have thin margins of error and many will be judged by how quickly their young, untested players develop. Even at Ohio State where the freshman are said to be can’t miss, youth could be a factor.  The teams that blend and mature fastest will fill the upper standings. Execution and toughness will be the watchwords.

Here’s this humble correspondant’s conference preamble from Champaign to Madison:

More Than Meets The Eye: Illinois
Of course I will miss watching Dee Brown wear out his shoes and his defenders. But I have a hunch this team’s beautifully recruited mix of complimentary parts will be just fine, if not a better team without him. Star players who dominate the ball can cause even well coached teams to stand around and watch. This Illini bunch has skill and athleticism at every position, is deeper than meets the eye, and has potential breakout superstars in Randle and last year’s frosh phenom, Jamar Smith. Chester Frazier is blessed with Dee Brown type speed and will be a formidable point guard. C.J. Jackson is an intriguing addition to a frontline already well stocked with Arnold, Pruitt, and Carter. Incoming freshman Brian Carlwell is a very gifted athlete at 6’11” and with Weber tutelage will make his presence felt by the second half. The Dayton transfer, Trent Meacham, will insert yet another deadly shooter into Weber’s delicious motion offense. When Rich McBride returns from his DUI suspension, the Illini start to look like a team capable of playing into late March.

Text Messenger In Chief: Indiana
D.J. White and then who? Roderick Wilmont? A.J. Ratliff? Ben Allen? Questions abound. Errek Suhr has a monster heart, but Sampson will likely bury him on the bench. After a final campaign in Norman in which he underachieved and cheated, does Sampson have the coaching chops to get this team to the upper tier. Welcome to the Big Ten Kelvin. As you make your first visits to the gyms of this conference, I sincerely hope you are granted the respect and dignity you deserve.

Where’s Brunner?: Iowa
Has Haluska, Tony Freeman, and Mike Henderson and a host of question marks. Brunner, Horner, and Erek Hanson are colossal losses. Alford will need his newbies to grow up fast.

Amaker’s Chance: Michigan
As much as I would prefer to bet against Amaker and he will do everything in his power to turn this strong roster into lesser than its sum of parts, the Wolverines will be a tough out. Abram, Sims, Dion Harris provide a lot of offensive firepower. Amaker has a 5-star new addition in DeShawn Sims. He will contribute right away. Petway is long overdue to evolve from mere freakish athlete to a more consistent contributor. For some reason Michigan’s AD remains infinitely patient with Amaker despite the glaring underachievement of his tenure. Maybe this is the year when Tommy justifies this patience and notches his first NCAA bid in Ann Arbor.

It’s Coaching, Stupid: Michigan State
Again, the Spartans lose three stars but does this spell doom? I have a feeling Izzo is rubbing his hands together with delight at the challenge. It’s coaching, stupid. This is exactly the kind of under the radar roster Izzo can turn to gold. Naymick, Suton, Gray provide strong, beefy post presence. Look for Ibok to make a quantum leap this season as well. With Izzo doing the grooming the frosh will provide nice depth by the latter half of the season. This includes 7-foot frosh Tom Herzog and Minnesota’s all-time leading scorer, Isaiah Dahlman, a 6’7” swingman. But it is Raymar Morgan who will make the most immediate impact. He’s a big body who’s ready to go now. This will be a score by committee team. No superstars, but good leadership from Neitzel, selfless point play from Travis Sutton, and this squad will defend, rebound, and compete according to the Izzo tradition. This will be a much tougher team, mentally and physically, than we’ve seen in Lansing the past four years. Izzo was frustrated by the softness of his most recent teams and has said that he’s returning to the steel wool methods that brought him the National Title and the Final Fours. I look forward to seeing it play out with this year’s team.

Hot Seat For Monson: Minnesota
Tollackson and Dan Coleman are the go-to guys. They were promising players as sophomores, but the junior year was tough on them. Monson faces a stern test milking wins from this depleted udder. But maybe the loss of Grier will benefit the team game and they will mesh into a nice surprise. I still have a soft spot for Monson, but after eight years of inconsistent results, he probably deserves the hot seat.

Skinny Kittens: Northwestern
This will be one of the most talent poor teams this conference has seen in a decade or longer. They are more than capable of going 0-for the conference slate. A lot will be required of seniors Tim Doyle and Vince Scott. Craig Moore was a nice freshman but I don’t see him turning into a Vedran Vukusic type producer just yet. Newcomers Kevin Coble, Jeff Ryan, and Jeremy Nash will get significant minutes. In six seasons Bill Carmody has yet to take the Wildcats to the postseason. Granted, he faces unique challenges at Northwestern. He has to find both students and athletes. But I’m convinced this program is capable of Stanford type results. Does Carmody have the force of personality to turn this sad sack program around? I’d love to say yes, but it’s still an open question.

Kool-Aid In Columbus: Ohio State
I don’t drink the “Thad Five” Kool-Aid. It’s a sweet class in Columbus this year, but it will have to develop quickly to take advantage of its likely one-year centerpiece, Greg Oden. I hope to stand corrected, but I don’t think this is a team that will make a Fab Five run. Oden won’t play until late December or early January and he won’t be Bill Russell, Kareem, and Shaq rolled into one when he does. There will be rust on his game. Not to mention the team will need several weeks or longer to get used to having him on the floor. How will the team, drunk and giddy after a half season of Matta’s run and gun offense, accommodate to a more traditional, back to the basket, half court post player? I know Oden can run the floor, but he’s still, at the core, a back to the basket guy. Is Matta going to turn him into a Nick Smith jumpshooter? Can he find a way to run patient halfcourt sets that fully utilize his strengths? I don’t think it will be a seamless transition. Jamar Butler is a tough kid and will provide steadying influence. As will Ron Lewis. But guys like J.J. Sullinger, J’Kel Foster, and Terence Dials will be missed. They did the dirty work that these shiny, much hyped frosh might disdain. There are going to be a lot of hungry egos to feed in Columbus this year and I’m not sure there’s enough bread to go around.

Breakthrough For Lions: Penn State
An NIT club a year ago makes the leap to the field of 64. No significant losses and a great coach. Fierce competitors who play great on the road. Strong, experienced guard play with Jackson, Luber, and Walker. Claxton and Cornley get more out of their talent and size than any players in the league. Frontcourt depth is a potential pitfall, but DeChellis and his squad of overachievers will find a way.

Paint It Black: Purdue
Matt Painter’s program is going to spend a lot of time in the upper half of the Big Ten. It starts this season. Carl Landry will take up where he left off before the knee injury. Look for him to battle Alando Tucker for conference POY. David Teague scores, rebounds, and has deadly three-point range. Point will be manned by Terrance Crump, a behavioral casualty last year. Look for him to be a nice surprise. Lutz is another potent shooter at guard. Like Penn State, the Boilers will have new bodies up front and they will need to grow up fast. I like Painter’s chances.

Remember The Fitzgerald: Wisconsin
Wisconsin is capable of a Final Four. The Badgers are deeper than the Edmund Fitzgerald, athletic, and have well seasoned youth blended with veteran leadership. And then there’s Alando. In my mind he’s a first ballot All-American. The mask is off, watch out. Kammron Taylor is primed for a great senior campaign. Seth Davis posits that the Badger backcourt is too thin for this team to compete in March. I contend that Taylor plus Michael Flowers, redshirt freshman Mickey Perry, and ballyhooed newcomer Jason Bohannon will be an ample and able corps by end of season. Not to mention Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry are versatile swingmen who provide depth both to the front and backcourt. All apologies to the Thad Five, but Marcus Landry, after his problems last season, will join Raymar Morgan at MSU, as one of the conference’s best newcomers.

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While most of Central Ohio fixates upon the Nov. 18 Ohio State–Michigan game (and justifiably so) these chilly Autumn nights remind me that our mistress, Big Ten basketball awaits less than one month away. Seems like just yesterday that Thad Matta got pounded by John Thompson III in the NCCA Tourney. Although Hoopraker thinks they may still be unable to beat Georgetown, most prognosticators and related hoop cognoscenti think the potential of Ohio State’s young talent translates into a run to the Final Four.  I truly hope so but perhaps from my lingering pain growing up during the Eldon Miller regime, I’m more comfortable with low expectations. So Buckeye fans all, I plead, take a deep breath and walk in a circle three times.

With a nucleus of players from the Jim O’Brien era, Ohio State had a very good 2005-2006 regular season. While they stumbled miserably down the stretch in February and looked outright horrible in the NCAA Tourney, the Buckeyes generally exceeded expectations with an experienced team.  Benefiting from an unbalanced conference schedule that let them avoid a trip to Champaign, they won the regular season Big Ten Championship. Two very good players return from last year’s team in Jamar Butler (a potential first-team all-Big player) and Ron Lewis, a proven scorer albeit light defender. Among others, however, it loses a solid shooting guard and defender in J’kel Foster, a hard worker on both ends in J.J. Sullinger and the Big Ten Player of the Year in Terence Dials (let’s call it addition by subtraction with the loss Matt Sylvester). Ohio State replaces these experienced players with young but talented freshmen.

Oh yes, the Thad Five. For just about everyone, most of whom have never seen him play in a game, the hyperbole surrounding Ohio State’s season begins and ends with Greg Oden. However, surmising Ohio State will be better off without Dials and with Oden diminishes the contributions of Dials.  Although not as hyped, Daequan Cook is great shooter and will most likely probably step into Foster’s role, excel and exceed. David Lighty, Othella Hunter and Mike Conley, a talented point, will be counted on to provide significant minutes. No question, on paper it’s a talented recruiting class with potential. Putting potential on the scoreboard is another matter. Just ask Tommy Amaker and all the talent he has squandered from Seton Hall to Ann Arbor, Michigan.

The biggest issue with Oden is Matta’s failure to put depth behind the big freshman. Unfortunately, Matt Terwilliger is not the answer. Even when Oden returns from rehabing his injured wrist, Ohio State will have very little wiggle room on the front line.  As Dials will probably disclose over a beer or three, Matta has a proven track record of being completely unable to get him the ball when Ohio State needed a bucket. Unless Matta changes his coaching philosophy from a perimeter-oriented team to a post-team, which is very unlikely given the makeup of his recruiting classes and his track record at Butler and Xavier.  Oden, like Dials, may find himself watching the guards take jump shots for several months before he flirts with the NBA.

Some in the traditional media think it’s a down year in the Big Ten.  Hoopraker sees a wide open league that will be heavily dependent on the abilities of its coaches.  Many teams in the Big Ten will confront similar problems in terms of experience, or lack thereof, as Ohio State.  Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan State and Iowa all lost significant players. With young teams, coaching plays a huge role in determining wins and loses. On this point, I fear Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber have an edge on the Buckeyes. In the conference, Ohio State could easily lose to Purdue, Penn State, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. They’ll obviously have a tough time with North Carolina and Florida and perhaps the well-coached teams Kent State and Iowa State.

So far in his career, Matta has won with players he inherited from other coaches. Certainly a mark of a good coach is winning with the hand you’re dealt. This year, however, we will see Matta’s vision for Ohio State and he will be judged on its results. 

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